September 14, 2022 at 11:56 am
On the one hand, raw materials are shrinking for what it’s worth with data from China, where outsiders, watched from the West, and extended lockdowns due to Covid-19 resilience lead to lower demand for oil in the world’s second-largest economy. and the largest energy importer.
On the other hand, oil gains, these days, an impetus that comes from Eastern Europe, where the Russia/Ukraine war is putting natural gas at prices that burn the western economies and these, which are already beginning to show signs of being at the limit of what they can pay for natural gas, they are starting to turn to crude oil as an alternative, whether in the industrial sector or in the production of electricity.
This is reflected today in the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) which reveals that it has clear data on the option underway for the “switch” from natural gas to oil, which can exceed 700,000 barrels per day. between October of this year and March of next year.
These data, which are flattering for the oil business, are also supported by OPEC’s view that, according to a document now revealed, the most relevant western economies, despite being dealing with the severity of inflation, are achieving much better results. than expected, which will lead to an increase in the consumption of “black gold”.
It is known, however, that, as an analyst quoted by Reuters points out, OPEC tends to view the economy with “glasses with rose-colored lenses”, ignoring that inflation hides, around the corner, a real risk of recession, and if inflation does not have a severe impact on energy consumption, the recession could bring down that mountain of optimism.
For the time being, as can be seen in the charts of the main markets, the barrel is clearly taking root at the level of 92 to 95 US dollars, which corresponds to a balance of forces that, like a tug of war between two opponents with equivalent muscle mass, tends to swing little…
The barrel of Brent, which is the main reference for raw materials exported by Angola, was today, around 11:15, Luanda time, worth 93.06 USD, 0.2% more than at the close of Tuesday, approximate value at which it remained throughout this week, corresponding to the aforementioned balance of forces.
Which, in the end, is interesting news for the current moment of the national economy and when a new Government is preparing to take office, after the inauguration of the PR on Thursday, 15th, which is one of the most sensitive to the ups and downs of markets due to the strong dependence it still maintains on raw material, which accounts for 95% of national exports, 35% of GDP and close to 60% of tax revenues, and has been accumulating in recent years , a relevant surplus compared to the reference value assumed for the barrel in the OGE in force.
However, there are other factors to consider when looking at the roller coaster the barrel is permanently on.