Western hypocrisy has been on display for a long time, with successive news reports about the increase in the purchase of Russian oil by the USA, despite the total embargo that it decreed, even if through third parties, to disguise, and the European countries that, at the same time who are massively buying Russian gas and crude to top up their reserves ahead of the announced date for the start of the embargo, are beginning to show huge gaps in their internal cohesion as to how to deal with the committed effort of European Commission President Ursula Leyen , to cut European purchases from Moscow.
After last week came to an end with the raw material under strong pressure, this week looks set to be an invigorating period for the sector, which is always good news for the most petro-dependent economies, as is the in the case of Angola, which has more than 95% of its exports from crude oil, 35% of its GDP and close to 60% of its tax revenues.
And that is how, after the 8th of September, the barrel of Brent, which serves as a reference for national exports, hit USD 87, registering the biggest drop in seven months, behold, this Monday, the 12th, the international measure – equivalent to 159 liters -, was, around 11:00, Luanda time, worth almost 94 USD (93.91) plus 1.120%.
This gain, not very expressive in terms of numbers, but important as a change in the cycle of losses to a period that is expected to be of gains, is driven by the lack of progress in the negotiations between Iran and the USA on the nuclear agreement, which, when port, will allow the arrival on the markets of at least 1.5 million barrels per day exported by Tehran, currently embargoed under Western sanctions, but also the apparent lack of Western coherence in the way it deals with the embargo on energy Made in Russia.
Also helping is the decision taken by OPEC+, a cartel that in 2017 brings together the OPEC countries and 10 misaligned countries headed by Russia, which at its monthly meeting on September 5 took the extraordinary decision to cut production by 100,000 barrels per day.
With supplies funneling and data from the global economy improving, industry analysts estimate that oil will experience a period of big gains, clearly on the cusp of rising again beyond the USD 100 threshold…
And if the decision of the G7, the group of the seven largest industrialized economies in the world, to impose a maximum price for the sale of Russian crude, then, according to some analysts, it is very likely that the barrel will shoot up again because Moscow has already threatened that it will turn off the 100% gas and oil tap for all countries that align themselves with the intention of the G7, a group led by the USA.
On the other hand, China may come as a counter-vapour, because its strict Covid-Zero policies are tightening its economy, reducing its growth and imposing restrictions on the import of raw material.
In the background, the strong inflationary pressure in the western economies, the recession in sight in the USA, the danger of collapse of the German industry in the face of the risk of running out of Russian gas, and the rampant unemployment, are threats to the global oil business that could impact strongly on the Angolan economy and create difficulties for the Government of João Lourenço, who will now start the legislature, after the inauguration scheduled for this Thursday, 15.
For the African countries that make up this powerful organization, which controls 50% of the crude extracted daily around the world – close to 100 million barrels a day, with slight fluctuations in the face of the ups and downs of the markets, or giants (to close to 80 million), as happened with the Covid-19 pandemic, in 2020 -, keeping a barrel above USD 100 for almost six months is a breath of fresh air for its asphyxiated economies, especially the Angolan one, which is going through one of the most serious threats to its social stability without a rapid diversification of the economy being seen as possible to avoid these socio-economic tremors.
