With the possibility of Russia seeing its oil and natural gas out of the markets under the sanctions being applied to it by the western world, with the USA and the European Union at the forefront, the most important references in this business, from Brent, which determines the average value of the vines exported by Angola, is experiencing a frenetic moment, as has not been seen since 2008, and the underlying reasons are, this time, more severe than those that took the barrel in June of that year at 147 US dollars.
This is because if the world runs out of the approximately 8 million barrels that Russia puts on global markets every day, and its natural gas, which is, like crude oil, the third largest producer in the world and the second largest exporter, in one case, second only to the USA and Saudi Arabia, the planetary economy will be faced with a situation never seen before and, as such, without known mechanisms of response, which makes the current scenario, not only very volatile from the point of view of the markets, as it can even lead to the most dependent countries, the major world economies, looking at this problem as central to their existence and this leads to other levels of danger being reached.
For now, as it had not happened for more than 11 years, the barrel of Brent was, around 09:50, Luanda time, worth 127.5 USD, an increase of more than 8% compared to the close of the previous session, but it reached, for a moment, USD 138, while in the New York WTI, it reached USD 124.6 at the same time, with both references reaching historic values, and with one of the biggest weekly increases since the industry has existed. oil company
This extraordinary jump in the value of crude oil is a direct result of the war in Eastern Europe, which led the USA to move towards a possible decision to refuse to buy hydrocarbons Made in Russia, which could be immediately followed by the United Kingdom and the European Union, although there has already been a communication from the German Government today saying that Berlin does not agree with the exclusion of Russian crude, gas and coal from its shopping basket in the energy sector.
With this position on the part of Germany, the markets slightly halted the accelerated pace towards 2008 values, but everything could accelerate again if the German position does not prevail and the other European powers remained “submissive” to Washington’s will.
China’s position
Counterbalancing this swampy terrain on which the Russian oil industry stands is China, the world’s second largest economic power and the largest global importer of crude, which has already made it known that it will not align itself with the Western powers in the application of economic sanctions. to Moscow.
This information, which had already been admitted by the Government of Xi Jinping, was already confirmed by the president of the regulatory body of the Chinese banking system, Guo Shuging, guaranteeing that the country will maintain normal economic and financial transactions with Russia.
“We do not approve of the application of sanctions, especially those that are being applied unilaterally as they do not have a solid legal basis and there is no certainty that these can have a substantial influence on solving problems”, said the official.
This positioning of China allows an important relief in the restrictions that the Russian economy is facing due to the voluminous flow and western sanctions due to the invasion of Ukraine.
the precedents
Russia is the second largest producer/exporter of oil in the world, after Saudi Arabia, with whom it shares the leadership of OPEC+, the organization that since 2017 has sought to balance the oil markets by opening and closing the taps depending on market conditions. , which makes it clear that any disruption to its production and export infrastructure will generate a global storm, which could drive the price of a barrel to unprecedented levels.
According to some analysts cited by the media specializing in the sector, the crude oil values recorded today could still rise uncontrollably in the coming hours or days if, as US President Joe Biden warned before this action by the Russian President, the world decides to “punish ” Russia focusing on its productive infrastructure in the hydrocarbon sector, which is the country’s major export industry and its main source of revenue by far.
However, the world leaps forward and is not limited to seeing sanctions pass, and the effect of sanctions on Russia could be diluted with the entry into the market of another of the world’s major exporters of crude, Iran, which has been under strict US sanctions over the 2015 nuclear deal, after former US President Donald Trump unilaterally abandoned it, reimposing sanctions on crude oil exports on Tehran that had been lifted by his predecessor, Barck Obama.
Iran, according to the US President himself, is one step away from having sanctions lifted again following negotiations that have lasted more than a year, with Tehran committing to comply with the 2015 agreement, which determines , among other impositions, that this country abandon the process of creating enriched uranium, which will allow, in the limit, the creation of nuclear weapons.
And if that happens, as is expected, in the coming weeks, Iran, which has just announced to the world a gigantic discovery of crude oil and gas reserves in the south of the country, could enter the global market, immediately, between 2 and 3 million barrels a day, and this figure could reach 5 million in the space of a few years, or even months, due to its status as the 3rd largest producer in OPEC.
As an example, in 2019 Tehran announced to the world the discovery of a gigantic oil field with more than 53 billion barrels, in the Khuzestan area, just 80 meters deep, which means that, in addition to being vast, this Campo guarantees not only an extraordinary ease of extraction but also guarantees a dream breakeven for any multinational in the sector.
This Iranian field is second only to its star company, the Ahvaz field, which contains more than 65 billion barrels ready to be mined.
Angola
However, for now, this crisis, which is escalating day after day to new levels in Eastern Europe, is a guarantee of higher prices in international markets, which means that Angola, even if the country has been struggling for years with successive falls in production, now at less than 1.1 million barrels per day, even below the quota allocated in the context of OPEC, has a moment of relative prosperity ahead, considering that crude still represents 95% of its exports, it is responsible for 35% of the GDP and guarantees almost 60% of the State’s operating expenses.
